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Bills vs. Chiefs odds, predictions, betting trends for 2021 AFC championship game

The Bills face the Chiefs in the AFC championship game at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday.  

The game is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. and will be televised on CBS.  

Kansas City is in the AFC championship game for the third consecutive season. The Chiefs advanced by holding on for a 22-17 victory against Cleveland in the divisional playoffs. Patrick Mahomes remains in concussion protocol, and his status will determine which way the betting trends go heading into Sunday.  

Buffalo is back in the AFC championship game for the first time since the 1993-94 season. Josh Allen has led the Bills to eight straight victories, and the defense flexed in a 17-3 victory against Baltimore in the divisional playoffs.  

It’s an exciting matchup between two teams led by young quarterbacks.

Here’s everything to know about betting on Bills vs. Chiefs in the 2021 AFC championship game, including updated odds, trends and our prediction for who will reach Super Bowl 55.

MORE NFL PLAYOFFS:
AFC & NFC bracket | TV schedule | Super Bowl picks

Bills vs. Chiefs odds 

  • Spread: Kansas City -3 
  • Over/under: 53.5 
  • Moneyline: Buffalo +120, Kansas City -140 

The Chiefs have held as a three-point favorite, but the line has dropped to 2.5 at some sportsbooks. Clarity on Mahomes’ status might lead to some late movement, but bettors looking to take the Bills won’t get much more value than this.  

Bills vs. Chiefs all-time series 

The Bills lead the all-time series 26-22-1. This marks the fourth postseason meeting between the teams. Kansas City beat Buffalo 31-7 in the 1966 AFL championship. Buffalo beat Kansas City in the AFC divisional playoffs in 1991 and AFC championship in 1993.  

The Chiefs beat the Bills 26-17 in Week 6.  

Three trends to know 

— The Chiefs are 1-9 ATS in their past 10 games, including playoffs. Kansas City has failed to cover the spread at Arrowhead Stadium in their past seven home games.  

— The Bills are 9-1 ATS in their past 10 games, including playoffs. Buffalo is 4-1 ATS as an underdog this season, but the lone loss was against Kansas City in Week 6.  

— To this point, 54 percent of the wagering has come in favor of Buffalo covering the spread against the Chiefs. A total of 64 percent of the wagers are taking the Bills on the money line.  

Three th ings to watch 

Will Mahomes play?  

Mahomes remains in concussion protocol, and if he can’t go the Chiefs will turn to veteran backup quarterback Chad Henne. Kansas City could go for a run-first attack either way knowing Clyde Edwards-Helaire rushed for 161 yards in the last meeting. Edwards-Helaire (hip) practiced last week and could return this week. Darrel Williams proved he could handle the workload against the Browns last week, and Le’Veon Bell also will get a handful of touches.  

Allen to Diggs  

It might be the best connection in the NFL right now. Diggs has five 100-yard games in Buffalo’s past six games. In that stretch, Diggs has 51 catches on 65 targets for 732 yards and six TDs. What can the Chiefs’ secondary, led by Tyrann Mathieu, do to disrupt that connection, especially in the middle of the field? Diggs had six catches for 46 yards and a TD in the regular-season meeting.  

Travis Kelce’s impact

Kelce finished with five catches for 65 yards and two TDs in the regular-season meeting. Mahomes or Henne will rely on Kelce in this matchup in the middle of the field, and Buffalo will have to make that adjustment in the red zone. Buffalo’s linebackers can’t lose Kelce this time around.  

Stat that matters 

Time of possession. Kansas City controlled the ball for 37:45 in the first meeting against the Bills, their second-highest total of the season. The Chiefs can control the tempo with their running game, too, and Buffalo needs to counter that. In Kansas City’s two losses, their opponents had the ball for more than 34 minutes. Granted, one of those losses was a Week 17 matchup against the Chargers when Henne started over Mahomes, but that point still stands.  

Bills vs. Chiefs prediction 

We’re going to make this pick with the assumption that Mahomes plays. Either way, Buffalo comes out with an aggressive passing attack, and Allen hits Diggs for a first-quarter TD. Allen keeps Cole Beasley and John Brown involved, but the Chiefs hold off the running game enough. Mahomes starts off shaky, but the magic act begins in the third quarter. He hits Kelce and Tyreek Hill for touchdowns, and the running game picks up in the fourth quarter. If Edwards-Helaire plays, that running game will be focused on even more. Buffalo scores a late TD for the final margin, but for the second straight week Andy Reid doesn’t give the ball back.  

Final score: Chiefs 28, Bills 26 

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