Gujarat: Winter and festive season nearing, health experts warn of Covid spike

Written by Ritu Sharma
| Ahmedabad |

Updated: November 9, 2020 1:11:59 am

Prof Dileep Mavalankar stated Gujarat ought to take a cue from the opposite northern states, like New Delhi, the place the quantity of instances elevated with the onset of winter. (Representational)

With the festive season and winter across the nook, health experts have raised issues over a doable spike in Covid-19 instances within the state.

The coronavirus instances in Gujarat crossed the 1.80-lakh mark on Sunday with 1,020 contemporary instances, a state health division report stated. Seven deaths had been additionally reported on the day.

Pointing on the uptick within the quantity of each day instances in Ahmedabad, Prof Dileep Mavalankar, the director of Indian Institute of Public Health (IIPH), Gandhinagar, stated as in European nations, the place a second wave of the illness has been witnessed, the quantity of instances within the state might rise too. On Sunday, Ahmedabad recorded 185 contemporary Covid-19 instances up from 182 a day in the past.

Dr Anish Chandarana, the vice-president of Ahmedabad Hospitals and Nursing Homes Association (AHNA), additionally hinted at a doable spike in instances in early December. “Several countries have already witnessed a spike about one-and-a-half to three months ahead of us. Seeing the trend, yes, a second spike (in Covid-19 cases) can be expected within one or two months. Also, it has been seen that the virus likes cold conditions, ranging between seven and 21 degrees Celsius. This can be a cause of concern as we may see a second spurt in cases at the beginning of December,” he stated.

Prof Mavalankar stated Gujarat ought to take a cue from the opposite northern states, like New Delhi, the place the quantity of instances elevated with the onset of winter. On Saturday, the nationwide capital witnessed 6,953 contemporary instances and 79 deaths.

Reduced cross-ventilation indoors throughout winter, Prof Mavalankar stated, may add to the quantity of instances. “During winter, when more people stay at home, there is reduced cross-ventilation indoors. Thus, transmission (of the virus) within the home is expected to increase. Further, with an increase in air pollution there are more chances of getting infected,” he stated. Dryness of respiratory passage and a drop in vitamin D stage throughout the season may result in the severity within the illness, he stated.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has already seen a dip in minimal temperature. On Sunday, the bottom minimal was recorded at Valsad (14 levels Celsius), adopted by Naliya (14.9), Gandhinagar (15), Amreli (16.5), Keshod (16.6), and Ahmedabad (17.4).

Crowding and travelling throughout the upcoming festive and marriage seasons, too, stay a trigger of concern. “Schools and colleges, too, are set to reopen… Once people start travelling or meeting outdoors, there will be an increase in the number of cases. This spike may not be too severe, but difficult to handle with the economy already in a bad shape, doctors already exhausted and drained,” Dr Mukesh Maheshwari, pathologist laboratory and medication knowledgeable, stated.

AHNA president Dr Bharat Gadhavi, nevertheless, stated the “virulence of the virus has gone down. Mortality rate is going down and with increased awareness, more patients are coming for treatment early. These are some positive signs”.

While cautioning that instances might go up after Diwali and a second wave will be witnessed within the subsequent 15-20 days, Dr Chandarana stated, “The authorities will also have to factor in several points — there is less virulence, reduced panic among people, treatment protocols have been set and are followed, the mortality rate has reduced, and there is no crisis of beds so far.”

Further, experts say the height is predicted to be comparatively weaker than the one witnessed in May-June.

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